The Road to Durban: Hopes and Challenges

Time is running out on the landmark greenhouse gas reduction measure, the Kyoto Protocol. The United Nations is meeting in Durban, South Africa to discuss the future of climate change and the future of the protocol.

The world looks to Durban for the next round of high-level climate negotiations, yet again words in the press afford a sense of Parties’ and stakeholders’ sentiments, and what to expect: “small steps towards an international treaty”, “the death of the Kyoto Protocol”, “global crisis”, and “a reality check”. But words are only words until the press picks up on them. And so, the President of the Maldives was quoted early this October saying, "the current negotiation process is stupid, useless and endless”, registering his frustration over how the current UN process is crippled by finger pointing and the need for consensus — all while his country continues to be seriously threatened by sea-level rise. He further added that, "in essence, even if we reach an agreement, it will be an agreement about nothing. It will be so diluted that it will be of no use."

Furthermore, the incoming chair of AOSIS wrote in reaction to the outcome of the Panama intersessional, “I am concerned by what seems like a trend to celebrate any forward motion, no matter how small, as though it was capable of addressing the full extent of the problem we face”

So then it seems the luxury and convenience of being “cautiously optimistic” is not as appropriate this time around. And the complexities behind “the single largest multilateral effort within the global system since the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648” just got stickier with the current debt crisis and uncertainty plaguing Western markets—not so coincidentally affecting developed nations with pending commitments on climate finance and to the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol which expires on 2012.

Indeed, Durban represents an urgent call for a “reality check” of how, in the midst of the same objectives and mandate under the Bali Action Plan and the Convention, countries are now compelled to consider the changed political and economic landscape vis-à-vis national interests and come to an agreement to avoid runaway climate change in the least time possible.

So what then can we realistically expect out of Durban? And what would the mode of discussions be moving forward to the critical year of 2012? What is there ultimately to be optimistic about?

Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development released a paper by Antonio G M La Viña and Lawrence G Ang entitled 'The Road to Durban: Hopes and Challenges" which briefly revisits the progress made from Cancun to the last intersessional held in Panama in October 2011.

Download the paper from Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development website

About the Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005.